There remains a sense with Zhilei Zhang, even at the age of 41, that we’re yet to find out how good – or even average – he really is. The same might be said for Saturday’s opponent, fellow heavyweight contender Agit Kabayel, who in his last two fights has at last started to put some meat on the bones of his unbeaten record. For those reasons of discovery alone, Saturday’s showdown in Saudi Arabia, which pits them together over 12 scheduled rounds, is an enticing encounter.
The uncertainty surrounding Zhang, 27-2-1 (22 KOs), might be largely attributed to a perceived tendency to fade, lose his shape, and run out of ideas in the second half of contests. It happened when he was held to a 10-round draw by the unfancied Jerry Forrest in 2021, there was an obvious energy slump when pipped over 12 by Filip Hrgovic the following year and, most recently, when Joseph Parker finished strongly to beat the Chinese southpaw over the same distance last year. In all three bouts, Zhang was in the ascendancy early and scored knockdowns.
To hang too much logic on his tank emptying and merely conclude that all anyone needs to do to beat him is simply to hang around long enough would be doing a disservice to the force he can bring early, however. Surviving against Zhang, though plainly possible, takes grit, determination, and the ability to withstand the most potent left hand in the heavyweight division. There’s a cuteness to his work at times, too. He certainly has the basics down and can undoubtedly box, but banging, as he often likes to remind us, is his speciality.
We shouldn’t forget that Joe Joyce, a fellow former Olympic medallist, was widely regarded as freakishly durable until Zhang’s power arm, which he likes to hurl long and straight, turned the Englishman’s supposedly bionic chin to mush. Those two 2023 stoppage wins, in consecutive bouts, likely remain Zhang’s most impressive. His five-round demolition of Deontay Wilder is also worthy of praise but the deterioration in the former WBC boss was apparent from the get-go last June. Throw in the knockdowns scored against Parker and Hrgovic and the extent of the task awaiting Kabayel is obvious: To win, he’ll have to prove his mettle along the way.
The German, 25-0 (17 KOs), is an old school perennial contender. The 32-year-old came to prominence of sorts when he outhustled Derek Chisora over 12 forgettable rounds back in 2017 but his progress, though European champion and rated favorably by the sanctioning bodies, was slow until he was invited to Saudi Arabia to play the role of opponent for Arslanbek Makhmudov at the end of 2023. Kabayel, in a breakout showing, made a mockery of his rival’s 18-0 stats with a savage four-round triumph, dropping Makhmudov three times.
That was followed by another trip to Riyadh, in May 2024, when he knocked out the 24-0 and highly ranked Frank Sanchez in seven rounds.
The questions remain, however. If Kabayel was as devastating as he looked against Makhmudov and Sanchez, why was he laboring against the likes of Chisora, Andrii Rudenko and Herve Hubeux in the past? If Kabayel is really that good, why has it taken so long for the rest of the world to see it? The answer may very simply be that he raised his game when in the most lucrative shop window of them all. It’s feasible, too, that he’s now improving with every outing after a long and arduous education.
What’s also possible is that neither Makhmudov or Sanchez had truly earned their contender tags and were exposed the moment they stepped up in class for the first time. Therefore, beating two unproven heavyweights does not automatically mean that Kabayel becomes a world beater.
Yet it was the measured attacks he used in both beatdowns, nearly always punctuated by hurtful raids to the body, that point to someone who is, at the very least, difficult to contain. He showed against Makhmudov that he could take a shot, also that he knows how to cut off the ring, get close, and wipe out any advantages in height that his opponent may have. Zhang, at 6ft 6ins, is three inches taller but they both boast an 80-inch reach which suggests that Kabayel, who moves inside on smart feet, won’t have a problem with his aim downstairs.
That southpaw stance of the taller man won’t be alien to Kabayel – he’s beaten three lefties before – but it might become apparent that Zhang, adept at keeping things long in the early going, is a different beast to the likes of Pavel Siska, Wladimir Letr and Agron Smakici.
Zhang has the power to hurt any heavyweight. He’s also underrated when it comes to pure boxing skill. But we’re yet to see him put it all together effectively over a 12-round fight so it would be surprise if he was able to suddenly do that here – particularly at the age of 41.
The pick, therefore, is for the quietly confident Kabayel to artfully negotiate any early crises, slow his man down with accurate swipes to the body, retain control in the second half, and win on the cards.
Purely for the sake of record-keeping, we should probably also mention that the vacant WBC heavyweight strap is on the line (even though WBC heavyweight champion Oleksandr Usyk is glaringly active, fit, and well).
